Election Predictions

Here are my predictions for the elections on Tuesday.  I’ll do a post-mortem to see how I did :)

U.S. Senate
My Prediction – 50 Democrats, 50 Republicans (Stays Dem majority)
Possible Surprises – Wisconsin, Delaware, West Virginia, Washington, California

Competitive Races (Republicans pick up 5 seats)
Alaska – Miller vs. Murkowski vs. McAdams (Miller will win by 2%)
California – Fiorina vs. Boxer (Boxer will win by 2%)
Colorado – Buck vs. Bennett (Buck will win by 3%) Rep pickup
Nevada – Angle vs. Reid (Angle will win by 4%) Rep pickup
Illinois – Kirk vs. Giannoulias (Kirk will win by 3%) Rep pickup
Pennsylvania – Toomey vs. Sestak (Toomey will win by 4%) Rep pickup
Washington – Rossi vs. Murray (Rossi will win by 1%) Rep pickup
West Virginia – Raese vs. Manchin (Manchin will win by 1%)

Interesting Races (Republicans pick up 1 seat)
Democrats win Delaware
Republicans win Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Wisconsin

Snooze Fests (Republicans pick up 3)
Democrats win Connecticut
Republicans win Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio

U.S. House of Representatives
My Prediction – 235-242 Republicans, 193-200 Democrats (Republicans gain 60-67 seats)

Races to Watch (Winner in parentheses)
Illinois – Districts 8 (R), 10 (R), 11 (R), 14 (R), 17 (R)
East Coast – NJ6 (D), AL2 (R), CT4 (R), CT5 (R), GA2 (R), KY6 (D), MA10 (D), ME1 (R), ME2 (D), NY1 (D), NY13 (D), NY24 (R), NY25 (D), PA11 (R), PA12 (D), PA7 (R), RI1 (D), VA11 (D), VA9 (D), WV1 (D)
Central – IL10 (D), IN2 (D), MI7 (D), MI9 (R), MN8 (R), MO4 (D), MS4 (D), NC11 (R), NC2 (R), NC7 (R), OH6 (R), TN4 (D), TX23 (R),
West Coast – AZ7 (R), AZ8 (R), HI1 (D), ID1 (D), OR5 (D), WA2 (D), WA3 (R), WA9 (D)

State Governors
My Prediction – Governor’s Results – Republicans 33, Democrats 17
Possible Surprises – California, Colorado, Illinois, Oregon

Competitive Races (Republicans pick up 0 seats)
Democrats win California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Vermont
Republicans win Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island

Snooze Fests (Republicans pick up 6 seats)
Democrats will win Massachusetts, Colorado, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Maryland, Arkansas, New York
Republicans will win Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Maine, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Iowa, Alaska, Tennessee, Utah, Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Wyoming

Do you agree with my predictions?

  • http://www.nurturedmoms.com/ Heather

    I agree with your pick for Oregon governor! I’m voting for Chris Dudley over the Libertarian candidate purely because he burned his house down and took a (legal!) tax deduction for it, and the democrats here made such a huge stink about it. Also, he moved to Washington for a while to avoid the ridiculous taxes here in Oregon, and the dems made a huge stink about that, too. Anybody who’s unwilling to pay taxes and finds creative legal ways to get out of it is the perfect candidate for governor in my mind! Hopefully he’ll figure out some creative ways to get Oregon out of the horrific financial mess they’re in, too.

  • http://flatratebiz.com/blog Genuine Chris Johnson

    Chris dudley presents the appearance of competence.

  • http://www.informedplanet.com informedPlanet

    If this was written pre-election, you were on the mark. Nice call.

    • Bob

      Yes, it was written before the election. I called it pretty well. Some of my House calls were off, and I miss-called Nevada. I think I’ll also be wrong about Washington and perhaps Colorado and Alaska.

  • http://www.nurturedmoms.com/ Heather

    Sadly, you (and me) were wrong about Dudley. He just conceded to Kitzhaber.

    • Bob

      Booooo…. that’s the biggest disappointment of the election.

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